Election Eve punditry

Update: Restore Leadership ATX, a PAC I reported on last week, says that 90% of its spending has been in support of Prop I. Less than 10% of its spending went to the Council candidates it supports.

I try to keep election punditry to a minimum because it is ultimately unimportant. The emphasis national media outlets have placed on debating the outcomes of elections before they occur has generally been a bad thing that has come at the expense of more useful examination of the issues.

That being said, there's a reason punditry is popular. So here are some final takes on Election Eve as I sit at Chicago Midway on my way to Austin.

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Prop I

I really don't think it matters much whether or not Prop I passes. The concerns motivating Prop I already prompted Council to pass an ordinance essentially requiring the same thing. In fact, the current ordinance requires an audit every three years, as opposed to the five in Prop I.

The only compelling concern I've seen raised about Prop I is that its language could offer an opening for litigation hobbyists like Bill Aleshire to argue that the audit was never completed to obstruct necessary tax rate elections. But I think there are ways the city can protect against these kinds of shenanigans.

Eight years ago there was Prop K, which simply proposed one audit. Then, as is now, the opposition seemed more motivated by who was backing the ballot measure than the content of the proposed ordinance. It was backed by shadowy conservatives, therefore it was almost universally denounced by local elected officials ("Don't Trump Austin" said the yard sign) and Prop K lost 58-42.

Things are different this year. For a number of reasons, Austin voters have become angrier about the local tax burden and the perception of waste in local government. But anti-Republican sentiment is probably even more intense than it was at the time, and tying Prop I to the needless cruelty of Elon Musk's DOGE is enough to turn a lot of Austin voters against it.

So...I wouldn't be surprised to see it go either way. I think it will be close.

The Parks & Libraries Bonds

I think it will pass. Yes, there is more antipathy towards the city and spending than in past bond elections, but there wasn't any organized opposition to these measures.

District 9

Zo Qadri will finish in first place, but will he be able to break 50% to avoid a runoff? Zo's greatest political strength four years ago was his unparalleled ability to win the votes of UT students. His domination with that group got him into the runoff, but even more impressive was his ability to get far more students than usual to vote in the December runoff.

Zo is the only Council member whose district actually voted for Prop Q. Even more important, his majority-renter district has more voters than any other who have never heard of Prop Q and don't think about property taxes, period.

District 8

There are reasons that Selena Xie shouldn't be a shoo-in in Southwest Austin's District 8. She supported Prop Q, which lost 75-25 in the purplish district.

But I still think she will triumph over Jeffery Bowen easily due to running a far superior campaign and the support she can point to from Democratic officials and clubs in a blue wave election year. Bowen's electioneering skills are suspect,

She's also a woman, which is not insignificant in Travis County.

District 5

I would guess that Ryan Alter is the most vulnerable of the incumbents due to the negative press he got over office spending and the prominent role he played in support of Prop Q. But nobody I talk to seems to think David Weinberg is running a very good campaign. Meanwhile, Alter proved four years ago that he does know how to effectively target the likeliest voters at the doors.

There are also two other candidates who will draw some votes, particularly since they are women, potentially forcing a runoff...

I think that if someone wins outright tomorrow, it's more likely to be Alter. If Alter gets forced into a runoff with Weinberg, though, I think Weinberg becomes the favorite with the December electorate.

District 3

Nobody's crazy about José Velásquez, but he hasn't done anything to piss anyone off. My guess is that he'll win reelection without a runoff.

District 1

This is the tricky one.

Amber Goodwin has raised the most money and has all the important endorsements from prominent Democrats and Dem orgs. Assuming she has deployed her resources relatively well, I would guess she'll at least make it into the runoff.

The word is that Alexandria Alexander hasn't run a particularly strong campaign. Her fundraising has lagged in the homestretch. Steven Brown looks a little stronger, although that's not saying much.

If I had to guess which other candidate will make it into the runoff, it would be Misael Ramos. He has shown more strength than the others on fundraising, particularly in the final stretch, and he's the only Hispanic candidate in a district where Hispanics are the biggest demographic group. He also got some good press from that ICE protest arrest. He also came in a (all things considered) strong second place four years ago with 25% of the vote.

If you are old enough to remember the 2018 election, Mariana Salazar and Natasha Harper-Madison finished neck-and-neck in the general election, with 26% and 25%, respectively. NHM went on to win the runoff with 72%. It's not hard to imagine a similar outcome for Goodwin v Ramos.

Talarico

He's gonna win!

Save Austin Now vs donor

Personal injury attorney and prolific Twitter pundit Adam Loewy (past APN sponsor) wants his followers to know that he did not approve of the mailer Save Austin Now sent to residents of District 8 urging residents to support Prop I and conservative Council candidate Jeff Bowen.

Why does Loewy need to make this clear? Because as one of SAN's largest donors, his name appeared at the bottom of the mailer. He only donated to support Prop I, not to oppose friend Selena Xie.

As far as I can see, SAN did not disclose on any of its recent finance reports that it was spending on behalf of Bowen. Whatever. They can always just blame the city.

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