School closures & the tax rate election

In case you missed it, on Friday evening the Austin Independent School District announced plans to close 13 schools.

Without wading into the merits of AISD's decision, the news is no doubt heartbreaking and infuriating to thousands of families in the community. For many kids and parents alike, being forced to change schools, particularly one that requires a longer commute or that you perceive as lower quality, will feel like a betrayal.

This is the kind of thing that is supposed to happen in Cleveland and Buffalo, not Austin. And yet, even as Austin's population boomed, AISD enrollment dropped by 15% between 2012 and 2022, from 86k to 73k, and has continued to decline each year since. There are a number of factors driving the enrollment decline: lower birth rates, the growth of charter schools, and of course high housing costs that have driven families to the suburbs and exurbs.

And things may very likely get even worse for AISD once the new voucher program kicks off.

Which leads me to a text I got Friday evening from a fellow reporter:

Tough day for Prop Q. Think parents of displaced AISD students are eager to pay higher taxes?

This is exactly what I warned of last year when AISD pushed successfully for a major tax rate election. Because of the state's unjust "recapture" policies, the district only got to keep a quarter of the $160 million tax hike that voters approved. Here's what I wrote at the time:

My concern is that even with this tax hike, AISD is still going to make tens of millions of dollars in cuts. How are voters going to feel when they approve a big tax hike with such a small ROI? Is that going to further undermine confidence in the district? Moreover, will that make it harder for other local governments to seek tax hikes –– which they absolutely will need to do –– in the coming years? 

Whatever happens, I am very disappointed by the way this issue has been framed by its supporters and the media. An honest message of, "This really sucks, we hate to do it, but Greg Abbott is forcing us to," would at least establish realistic expectations. That it's being touted as a bold investment for "stronger" schools is only going to invite distrust and backlash when voters realize how little we're getting in return. 

From the perspective of a voter, they gave the district the money it said it needed, and now schools are closing. So what's going to happen when they give the city the money it says it needs?

On the other hand, perhaps the AISD tragedy fits perfectly with the anti-Trump/anti-Abbott narrative the Prop Q campaign is running. Many of AISD's problems are probably self-inflicted, but the fact that the state is taking 50% of its tax dollars is a pretty big factor in this mess.

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