The campaign for the housing bond

I don't have much to add about the tragedy on W. 6th Street. To learn that the two who have already lost their lives were so young is heartbreaking. Austin Current reports that there are three people in critical condition, one of whom is likely to be taken off life support.

Kudos to APD and EMS for getting there so quickly, stopping the killer and helping the victims.

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The campaign for a housing bond

Housing advocates are ramping up pressure on City Council to put an affordable housing bond on the ballot this November. The most recent recommendation for a bond program by city staff did not include any money for housing.

In an open letter to City Council, Awais Azhar, executive director of HousingWorks, said that the much-celebrated decline in market rate rents over the past few years is not an excuse to stop investing in subsidized housing.

"Rents and home purchase prices remain far beyond the reach of many thousands of Austinites who remain housing cost-burdened, having seen their wages stagnate even as housing costs have generally increased. Far too many families are unable to afford a stable home, and thousands of our neighbors are at risk of being displaced from our community or are living in inadequate housing," wrote Azhar.

He also highlighted other cost pressures that will make it harder for people to make rent, including big cuts in federal support for Medicaid and Obamacare plans. Trump's tax policies have also made federal low income tax credits less attractive, undercutting America's primary private sector mechanism for building income-restricted housing.

Azhar expressed dismay both at staff's neglect of housing in their bond recommendation and at the "lack of clarity" about how much money is left to be spent from past housing bonds.

Meanwhile, the Affordable Housing Working Group of the 2026 Bond Election Advisory Task Force last week released its own recommendations. In a nod to the political pressure to keep costs low, it offered a "floor" recommendation and a "medium" recommendation in addition to its real one, which is higher.

You'll note that the funds recommended for the Homeless Strategy Office don't vary much between the recommendations. HSO has requested $50 million to build a new long-term shelter operation. One of the city's current shelters, the Marshalling Yard in Southeast Austin, was never intended to be permanent.

Forget the "decision tree." This is a political decision

On Thursday City Council adopted a framework for deciding whether to put a bond on the ballot this year. The "decision tree" was initially proposed by Mayor Kirk Watson and amended by various Council members.

I don't assign much weight to the decision tree. Ultimately Council members will support a bond if they believe it is a good idea and/or if there is enough political pressure on them to do so. There is no branch on the "decision tree" that is strong enough to withstand either of those two considerations.

If not for the Prop Q drubbing a few months ago, I don't think there would be any doubt about a 2026 bond, which has been in the works since mid-2024.

There are key distinctions between asking for a permanent tax hike for social services during an odd year election and asking for infrastructure investments during what will likely be a high turnout blue wave election. But for the first time in years, Council members understand that not everything they put on the ballot will pass.

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