A new day in Texas. A new day in Austin

This is a long one. I'm going to start with some analysis of the statewide political earthquake...I'll get to the City Council races at the bottom.

“Talarico is a symbol. Gina is an earthquake,” said Garry Mauro, a former Texas land commissioner who was among the last Democrats to win a statewide race, in 1994. “It’s a tsunami. The world has changed. The political maps will never be the same again.” — The New York Times

What happened last night was by far the craziest shit I've seen in 22 years of observing politics. And I've seen Donald Trump elected twice.

Texas's seemingly impenetrable Republican fortress built over three decades by the likes of Rove, DeLay, Perry, Patrick and Abbott, was breached and ransacked, crumbling along with the disastrous Trump presidency to which it so enthusiastically hitched its wagon. Democrats won every statewide office and won a commanding majority in the state house. The Republican majority on the Supreme Court shrunk from 9-0 to 5-4.

It was a long-overdue humiliation for the arrogant and corrupt Republican machine that for a generation has lorded over the world's eighth largest economy according to the whims of a small group of far-right extremists.

Yes, Democrats did well everywhere last night, but the blue shift was particularly pronounced in Texas. Why? I have to believe the contrast between the talented and inspiring Talarico and the odious Ken Paxton (who lost by 12 points!!!) played a big role in shaping the outcome in every race on the Texas ballot. But the margins in the other statewide races weren't close either. It was surreal to watch Greg Abbott meekly concede defeat to Gino Hinojosa at only 10 pm last night, trailing by 7 points, his three-term reign ending in a whimper.

That the Texas GOP fell so hard makes the resilience of the GOP in Florida all the more impressive, as one interested observer noted:

Texas is still not a blue state. It is a state that will continue to be home to strong conservative political impulses. Voters delivered a stinging rebuke to the GOP's decadence, but Democrats must take seriously the task of speaking to the "normie" majority in this incredibly diverse state. Swing voters exist!

But the psychological effect of this shellacking will change the game here forever, attracting liberal interest and money from all around the country, including within Texas! Formerly demoralized donors and activists have come out of hibernation. Interest groups and businesses that for decades have loyally paid tribute to the Republican machine now confront a very different political paradigm.

The Texas Senate remains in GOP control and insiders expect Republicans to strip incoming Lt. Gov. Vikki Goodwin of many of the powers that traditionally make lieutenant governors in Texas so influential. Republicans are similarly calling for the legislature to take steps in the coming weeks to strip the governor of certain powers that had been bestowed on that office over the years.

The bottom line is that Texas now has something that until very recently was unfathomable: divided government.

Austin has a friend in state government

It's anybody's guess what type of policy will come out of Texas's divided government (it's not something anybody has prepared for!) but for the first time in decades the city of Austin will not be judging a legislative session merely by how many bullets it dodged. Austin will have an ally in the governor's office and allies in state legislative leadership.

And it's not just about Austin, but Texas cities in general. The cities that have powered Texas's economy and that have for so long been neglected and abused by their state leaders will finally have a seat at the table.

Imagine a Texas state government that actually cares about its major cities? That partners with them on housing, homelessness, education? That thinks of urban transportation in terms beyond bulldozing neighborhoods for highways?

The Austin Transit Partnership still faces plenty of challenges in delivering light rail, but it no longer has to fear a hostile attorney general, governor and state legislature.

Property tax relief is something that Democrats and Republicans could very well collaborate on, but there will no longer be talk of simply doing it by further limiting local government's taxing authority.

Also, nobody is going to tell the city of Austin how to paint its fucking crosswalks.

Now, for the city races!

Prop I failed 55-45, and like I said before, I don't think it really matters. The city is currently doing exactly what the charter amendment proposed and current ordinance requires it to do it again every three years.

I stopped by the the Save Austin Now watch party at Bouldin Acres right as Matt Mackowiak and Bill Aleshire took the stage to concede, saying that Austin voters had sadly been duped by a dishonest opposition campaign. Aleshire also apparently concluded his remarks by calling me out by name, accusing me of "pretending to live in Austin." I unfortunately was grabbing a drink at the time and missed it; I don't think many of the people in the crowd knew who or what he was talking about.

More significant long-term is the passage of Prop G (64-36), which now requires that citizen initiatives be voted on in the November elections of even-numbered years. For better or worse, that means that initiatives will only be decided by large electorates, rather than the small May or odd-year electorates.

The $260 million parks bond and the $35 million library bond both passed with roughly 60% of the vote.

My prognostications in the Council races ended up faring pretty well. I had Amber Goodwin and Misael Ramos as likely heading into a runoff and that's what happened.

I said I thought José Velásquez would avoid a runoff but it looks like he fell just short and will face Neha Shah in a runoff.

Ryan Alter similarly got 47% and will face David Weinberg in a runoff.

Selena Xie won easily, of course, in Southwest Austin. It's worth remembering this district was first represented by Republican Ellen Troxclair:

And Zo Qadri also just barely avoided a runoff, winning outright in Central Austin's District 9:

(Thanks to KXAN for the results graphics)

The runoffs in D1, D3 and D5 offer the chance for skeptics of new housing supply to get on Council. I'll have more coverage of those races in the coming weeks!

If you were forwarded this email, please consider getting your own subscription to the Austin Politics Newsletter! 

And if you found this article particularly valuable, you can show your appreciation by buying me a cup of coffee to fuel further investigation and analysis of city politics.