Paige Ellis falls short

Paige Ellis will not get a chance to run for a third term. The city clerk's office reviewed the 3,409 signatures Ellis submitted and determined that 426 of them were invalid for one reason or another, leaving the Council member 62 signatures short of the required 3,044. Brutal.

Frankly, I was somewhat surprised that Ellis got as close as she did. I've been saying for over a year (here, here and here) that this was going to be a slog. I realized what an uphill battle it was after talking to the one person who had done it: Kathie Tovo. And Tovo had significant advantages over Ellis: a larger and more devoted volunteer base and much denser district that is frequently host to large gatherings of people. Above all else, Tovo began early and submitted her signatures several weeks before they were due.

Many others in city politics, including Ellis, did not appreciate just how formidable a project this would be. The campaign had six months to gather signatures but didn't hire paid canvassers until two months before the deadline. Unfortunately, mid-June t0 mid-August is about the worst two month period you could pick for door-to-door canvassing in Central Texas. Temperatures in the closing weeks have been particularly brutal, which may explain why the campaign hiked pay from $23/hr to $33/hr in the final days.

The best opportunity to get signatures was at the polls during the early voting period before the March 3 primary. Ellis herself gathered signatures during those days, but there was not a major canvassing operation in place.

Still, why each of Ellis's signatures were disqualified remains a mystery. The city clerk is something of a black box. I have sought comment from the city on the matter and hope to be able to report more details in the coming days.

With such a narrow margin (62 signatures!), I expected Ellis to challenge the clerk's ruling. But she quickly and graciously announced that she respected it. She did not respond to my request for comment but here are excerpts of a statement she provided to KXAN:

“Over the past six months, my campaign ran an exhaustive signature collection drive, where I personally knocked on thousands of doors, visiting all kinds of voters through all kinds of Texas weather. I feel so fortunate that our community has repeatedly and warmly welcomed me into their homes, our parks, our restaurants, and so many other places.

"...Our campaign verified our petition against two voter files before submission, and our internal count showed a healthy cushion above the 3,044 signatures required. Tonight, we have been informed by the City Clerk’s office that the petition fell 62 signatures short."

"...On behalf of me and my entire team, it has been an honor to serve the people of Southwest Austin, and I look forward to continuing to connect with this city in new capacities, whatever those may be."

Ellis's active mobility legacy

If there is one accomplishment that will define Ellis's legacy it is the $460 million active transportation bond that voters approved in 2020 alongside Project Connect.

Ellis and her staff pushed hard for including the bond over the objections of others who worried that putting "too much on the ballot" would jeopardize Project Connect. In the end, both passed but the bond passed with an even greater margin. The bond has been a game-changer for pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure in Austin, providing a solid foundation the city will continue to build upon for years to come.

She was also a consistent vote in favor of land use reform and advocate for parks funding.

Selena Xie v. Jeffery Bowen

With Ellis out of the race, there's now a head-to-head between Selena Xie and Jeffery Bowen. (Xie's website, Bowen's website)

Xie is a liberal and former president of the Austin EMS Association and Bowen is the pretty conservative president of the Austin Neighborhood Council who has generally running as an opponent of the City Hall establishment. He has been an ardent opponent of land use reform and believes city spending is out of control.

Xie is a heavy favorite. District 8 might be one of Austin's most conservative, but it still leans very blue in the Trump era. All indications are this will be a strong year for Democrats and although the race is nonpartisan, Xie will get all of the Democratic endorsements and, just as importantly, she is a woman, which counts for a lot in down ballot races in Travis County. Furthermore, Bowen has not yet shown he is able to raise enough money to mount a serious campaign. In his most recent campaign report, which covers the first six months of the year, Bowen reported just under $10,000 on hand. Xie, meanwhile, had $106,000.

It's funny to think what would have happened if Xie had decided not to run. That would have been a rational decision, given the challenge of running against an ideologically similar incumbent. Had she not run, would another Dem have emerged? If not, Bowen would have won by default.

More coverage in the coming weeks...

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